Dubai, December 13, 2023: In a historic turn of events, the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has concluded in Dubai with unparalleled backing for the “UAE Consensus”, signalling a global commitment to addressing the urgent challenges of climate change.
The consensus document delivers potent messages to the world. The urgent need to peak greenhouse gas emissions and reduce them by at least 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035, setting clear goals for the next seven years and beyond is highlighted in the UAE consensus. A groundbreaking aspect of the agreement is the unanimous call for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”, with a net-zero target by 2050. While compromises were made, the use of transitional fuels is encouraged only if aligned with the 1.5°C goal, emphasizing their limited and temporary role besides other key decisions as follows:
Key Declarations:
- A total of 11 declarations were signed at COP28, receiving substantial support from nations worldwide.
- The Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge endorsed by 130 countries, declarations on Agriculture, Food, & Climate signed by 158 countries, marked a pivotal moment in the collective global effort to address climate change.
- COP28 witnessed overwhelming support for Climate and Health, Climate Relief, Recovery and peace, Climate Finance, Hydrogen and Derivatives, Gender-Responsive Just Transitions, as well as various pledges and charters.
Financial Mobilization and Commitments:
- By the conclusion of COP28, a remarkable $83 billion had been mobilized to operationalize various declarations and pledges.
- A historic decision at COP27 allocated $726 million to operationalize the Loss and Damage fund.
- Financial commitments included $3.5 billion for the Green Climate Fund, $133.6 million for the Adaptation Fund, $129.3 million for the Least Developed Countries Fund, and $31 million for the Special Climate Change Fund.
UAE’s Climate Initiatives:
- The launch of ALTÉRRA, a $30 billion catalytic fund, aimed to mobilize an additional $250 billion globally.
- The UAE demonstrated commitment by allocating $200 million through Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) for vulnerable countries, with an additional $150 million for water security solutions.
World Bank and MDB Commitments:
- The World Bank announced a substantial $9 billion annual increase for 2024 and 2025.
- Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) collectively increased their commitment by over $22.6 billion toward climate action.
Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge:
- Based on the critical figures outlined by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency to set a clear path for the future, the nations pledged to triple the installed capacity of renewable energy capacity by 2030, or at least 11,000 GW.
- The critical contribution of renewables and energy efficiency to the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 7 for “affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”, with nearly 800 million people globally without access to electricity, nearly 600 million of whom are in Africa is recognised.
- Nations committed to putting the principle of energy efficiency as the “first fuel” at the core of policymaking, planning, and major investment decisions and double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030.
- Commit to adopting ambitious national policies on renewable energy and energy efficiency and reflecting this ambition in NDCs, working with cities and subnational governments.
Declaration on Agriculture, Food, and Climate:
- On sensitive subjects like food, first time a total of 158 nations transcended political divides to address the critical nexus of food, agriculture, and climate change.
- Objectives focused on scaling up adaptation and resilience activities, ensuring food security and nutrition, maintaining inclusive decent work, emphasizing water management, and maximizing climate and environmental benefits.
- Nations committed to integrating agriculture and food systems into National Adaptation Plans, Nationally Determined Contributions, Long-term Strategies, National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans, and other related strategies before the convening of COP30.
Declaration on Climate Finance:
Nations recognised that investing $5-7tn annually in greening the global economy by 2030 will be critical to pursue the goals of the Paris Agreement by presenting the opportunity to accelerate local, regional and global low-carbon, and nature-positive growth strengthening the delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).
Progress was finally made on the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) to support developing countries in achieving their climate objectives, developed countries need to work to deliver on the goal of jointly mobilizing $100bn in the context of meaningful mitigation action and transparency on implementation through to 2025. The final text will bring more clarity for a doubling in adaptation finance.
Nations committed to economic opportunity for inclusive and shared prosperity so that no country has to choose between fighting poverty and fighting climate change by building flagship initiatives such as the Paris Pact for People and Planet (4P), Bridgetown Initiative, Accra Marrakesh Agenda, G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration, and African Leaders’ Nairobi Declaration on Climate and Call to Action.
Despite being endorsed by only 13 countries during COP28, the Declaration on Climate Finance has had profound and far-reaching effects. The endorsing nations, including Germany, France, Ireland, Colombia, India, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States of America, collectively embraced a few realities that extend beyond their borders.
- Freeing up fiscal space for climate action: The international financial architecture, public and private, needs to be made fit for more frequent, profound shocks. This can be done through wider use of climate-resilient debt clauses; consideration of debt-for-climate swaps; and sustainability-linked bonds. Additional voluntary IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) should be rechanneled, subject to national legal frameworks, including through the Resilience and Sustainability Trust. We also need to see the full implementation of the Common Framework for Debt Treatments Beyond the Debt Service Suspension Initiative.
- Widening the sources of concessional finance for climate action: Mitigating climate change and adapting and responding to climate impacts will require significant additional finance, including concessional finance. Efforts are needed to bridge these gaps, particularly for adaptation, which often requires non-debt financing.
- Enhancing domestic resource mobilization: A significant portion of the financing needed for climate action will come from domestic savings and efficient fiscal incentives. Robust policy frameworks and financial incentives should be put in place to mobilize domestic investment at scale towards respective net-zero and climate-resilient development pathways.
- Delivering just, country-owned transitions, leaving no one behind: Climate transitions have the potential to transform energy and industrial sectors, sustainable transport and agriculture systems, in the building of climate-resilient, nature-positive economies and in just transitions to net-zero economies. To capture these opportunities and achieve country-owned transitions that leave no one behind, developing countries will in many cases need concessional resources to unlock private finance, transfer of knowledge, skills and technology at scale.
- Building more effective MDBs: Recognizing the Report of the G20 Independent Expert Group on Strengthening MDBs, the MDBs need to enhance operating models, improve responsiveness and accessibility, and increase financial capacity so that they can better address global challenges such as climate change.
- Unlocking a highway of private finance: Private sector finance is the largest source of financial flows for climate action, particularly mitigation. Transitioning to a low-emission climate-resilient economy requires dedicated instruments to channel financing from mainstream institutional investors to large-scale clean infrastructure and drive private entrepreneurship to scale up clean business models and the transfer and deployment of climate technology.
- Delivering high-integrity carbon markets: Carbon markets remain an essential component of the climate finance architecture. Unlocking the potential of these markets to support the implementation of the Paris Agreement requires transparency, high-integrity standards across the value chain, both supply and demand in line with country circumstances, and the fostering of confidence to generate significant financial flows, including to developing countries. Carbon markets and credits generated should adhere to the key principles of environmental integrity. The use of carbon market mechanisms should be complementary to policies that aim to achieve real absolute, emissions reductions. This is crucial across both voluntary and compliance carbon markets.
As I tuned in to the final plenary meeting video on www.cop28.com on December 13, 2023, a notable scene unfolded—representatives from small islands actively registered their dissents on specific paragraphs within the consensus reached by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). A significant shift in terminology caught my attention, particularly in the context of fossil fuels, where a novel phrase, ‘transitioning away,’ emerged, supplanting the earlier emphasis on ‘phasing-out.’ The dissenting voices extended to African nations, expressing reservations regarding the adequacy of climate finance for adaptation.
The representative from Colombia introduced a thought-provoking perspective, asserting that science has, for the first time, wielded influence over politics at the Conference of the Parties (COP). However, concerns were raised about the potential consequences of designating oil and gas as transition fuels, as this may inadvertently facilitate the colonization of decarbonization efforts, posing a risk to the overarching objective of upholding the Paris Agreement.
A compelling statement emanated from the German representative, who expressed an understanding of the challenges faced by small island nations. Germany pledged to stand alongside these nations on a broader spectrum of issues as they progress. Speakers from nations with substantial influence, including the United States, echoed the sentiment that convening 200 nations and achieving a consensus on all fronts is a formidable task. Despite this, they acknowledged that the UAE consensus document manages to incorporate elements beneficial to everyone. Anticipation grew for future COP sessions, expected to place a heightened focus on the expectations and concerns of small island and African nations.
A significant development marked the operationalization of the ‘loss and damage fund,’ with an impressive contribution of $790 million. This decision served as a positive signal, setting the stage for COP28. Global leaders, recognizing the urgency, accepted the imperative to prepare and update long-term strategies aimed at reducing emissions and enhancing resilience. A joint commitment from the United States and China emerged, signalling their intent to revise their strategies in alignment with global stocktake decisions.
Amidst all the applause during the final address, I also noted language used in the DRAFT TEXT of CMA agenda item 4 – The First Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, Para No. 39 as of December 11, 2023, kept on https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/GST_2.pdf that reads, ‘Curtail both the consumption and production of fossil fuels,’ and ‘Reduce unabated coal usage while imposing restrictions on authorizing new and unabated coal power generation.’ I understand that this holds significant weight and is probably the reason for the delay in reaching a consensus by December 12, 2023, causing COP28 to work overtime. Hence, I understand that the final version of the language will retain its essence.”
Highlighting the significance of the event, H.E. Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, President of COP28 UAE, emphasized, “An agreement is only as good as its implementation. This historic consensus is only the beginning of the road. We have delivered a comprehensive response to the Global Stocktake and all the other mandates.”
The global stocktake, an integral component of the Paris Agreement, stands as a crucial means to evaluate the world’s collective response to the climate crisis and pave the way for a more sustainable future. Despite differences, the document is hailed as a significant milestone. The speaker commended the spirit of cooperation that brought diverse perspectives together to create a consensus document. In summary, COP28 witnessed diverse perspectives, ranging from dissenting voices to collaborative commitments, ultimately shaping the trajectory for future COP sessions and underscoring the global commitment to addressing climate challenges.