The global energy crisis has given renewable energy an unprecedented boost, with the world on track to add as much renewable energy in the next five years as it did in the previous twenty, according to Renewables 2022, the latest edition of the IEA’s annual report on the sector.
Concerns about energy security brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have prompted nations to rely less on imported fossil fuels and more on renewable energy sources like solar and wind. The report further said global renewable power capacity is expected to increase by 2400 gigatonnes (GW) between 2022 and 2027, equal to China’s entire power capacity today.
This enormous anticipated increase is 30% greater than the growth amount predicted just a year ago, demonstrating how quickly governments have added more policy weight to renewables.
According to the report, global solar PV capacity is set to almost triple over the 2022-2027 period, while global wind capacity nearly doubles in the forecast period. Together, wind and solar will account for over 90% of the renewable power capacity added over the next five years, surpassing coal as the primary source of electricity worldwide by the beginning of 2025.
Europe, China, the United States and India will primarily drive this upward growth in renewable power for the next five years with all implementing policies and introducing regulatory and market reforms more quickly than previously anticipated. Moreover, China is anticipated to account for nearly half of new global renewable power capacity additions throughout 2022–2027 due to its most recent 14th Five-Year Plan.
According to the report, global PV supply chains are beginning to show signs of diversification, and new policies in the US and India are predicted to increase investment in solar manufacturing by up to USD 25 billion between 2022 and 2027. China continues to be the dominant force, but by 2027, its proportion of global manufacturing capacity could fall from 90% to 75%.
Meanwhile, over the next five years, the total global demand for biofuel is anticipated to increase by 22%. Eighty per cent of the expected increase in the use of biofuels worldwide is expected to come from the United States, Canada, Brazil, Indonesia, and India, all of which have comprehensive growth-supporting policies.
The report also presents an accelerated scenario in which the capacity of renewable energy sources increases by an additional 25% over the main forecast. The accelerated case’s faster renewables growth would bring the world closer to a path consistent with reaching net zero emissions by 2050, with a good chance of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
“Renewables were already expanding quickly, but the global energy crisis has kicked them into an extraordinary new phase of even faster growth as countries seek to capitalise on their energy security benefits. The world is set to add as much renewable power in the next 5 years as it did in the previous 20 years. This is a clear example of how the current energy crisis can be a historic turning point towards a cleaner and more secure energy system. Renewables’ continued acceleration is critical to help keep the door open to limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.”
Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director