The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued an update stating that global temperatures are projected to reach record levels in the next five years due to greenhouse gas emissions and an upcoming El Niño event. According to the update, there is a 66% probability that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. Additionally, there is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, as well as the entire five-year period, will be the warmest on record.
The WMO Secretary-General, Prof. Petteri Taalas, clarified that this report does not imply a permanent breach of the 1.5°C target outlined in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming. However, the WMO is emphasizing that temporary breaches above 1.5°C will occur more frequently in the future. Prof. Taalas stressed the potentially far-reaching impacts on health, food security, water management, and the environment, urging preparedness.
The United Kingdom’s Met Office, the lead centre for such predictions, produced the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update. Their report indicates a 32% chance that the five-year mean will exceed the 1.5°C threshold. The likelihood of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has increased steadily since 2015 when it was nearly zero. Between 2017 and 2021, there was a 10% chance of exceeding this threshold.
Dr. Leon Hermanson, an expert scientist from the Met Office, highlighted that global mean temperatures will continue to rise, leading to a departure from the climate patterns we are accustomed to. The report also reveals that Arctic warming is disproportionately high compared to the global average. Furthermore, precipitation patterns are predicted to shift, with increased rainfall in certain regions and reduced rainfall in others.
The report was released prior to the World Meteorological Congress, where discussions on strengthening weather and climate services to support climate change adaptation will take place. Topics on the agenda include initiatives for early warnings and a new greenhouse gas monitoring infrastructure to aid climate mitigation efforts.
