The window to limit global warming to 1.5°C – the key target of the Paris Agreement – is effectively closed, according to a new scientific assessment released this week by the Earth System Science Data journal. The peer-reviewed study, led by an international team of over 60 climate scientists under the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) initiative, finds that only 130 gigatonnes of CO₂ remain in the global carbon budget to retain even a 50% chance of staying within 1.5°C of warming. At current emissions rates, that budget would be exhausted in just three years.
“We are seeing the science catch up with the political promises,” said the authors. “The numbers don’t lie: unless emissions fall drastically and immediately, we are heading for a world that will overshoot 1.5°C.”
Climate by the Numbers:
- Global warming driven by human activity has now reached 1.36°C above pre-industrial levels in 2024, with a 10-year average of 1.22°C.
- The rate of human-induced warming is accelerating, now at 0.27°C per decade—the fastest pace on record.
- Annual greenhouse gas emissions remain at record highs, showing little sign of decline despite growing awareness and pledges.
The IGCC initiative was launched to offer up-to-date, science-based climate indicators in between the major reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The latest IPCC assessment was published in 2021, leaving a critical information gap amid surging emissions and rising climate impacts.
The new findings also reinforce the growing recognition that the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is not marginal: every additional tenth of a degree brings disproportionate harm – greater crop losses, deadlier heatwaves, more frequent flooding, and worsening impacts for vulnerable communities.
Despite years of climate negotiations, net-zero pledges, and clean energy investments, global emissions have continued to rise, putting the world on track for between 2.5°C and 2.9°C of warming by the end of the century, far beyond the thresholds considered safe.
A Call for Urgency, Not Despair
While the 1.5°C goal may now be technically out of reach, the scientists stress this is not cause for inaction or fatalism. “Every fraction of a degree still matters,” the report notes. “We still have choices. And we still have a responsibility to act.”
As the world prepares for the next round of climate talks at COP30, the IGCC data is a stark reminder: time is no longer on our side, but action still is.
Access the full report here.
