EU greenhouse gas emissions rose 1.1 percent in Q3 2025

Eurostat reported on February 13, 2026 that EU economy emissions rose 1.1 percent to 828 million tonnes CO2-equivalent in Q3 2025, driven by households and manufacturing, while GDP grew 0.4 percent. The data shows decoupling remains uneven across sectors, underscoring transition risks relevant to investors and exporters tracking EU climate-aligned markets.

Eurostat reported on February 13, 2026 that the EU economy emitted approximately 828 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in Q3 2025, a 1.1 percent rise from 819 million tonnes in Q2 2025, while GDP grew 0.4 percent. Households drove emissions up 3.6 percent and manufacturing 1.4 percent, while electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply fell 0.8 percent. Emissions rose in 17 EU countries and fell in 10; Estonia led reductions at 17.4 percent, followed by Slovenia (5.7 percent) and Cyprus (5.2 percent). Year-on-year emissions stayed unchanged at 828 million tonnes.

Households and the manufacturing sector are identified as the primary drivers of the emissions increase and face the greatest transition risks. The electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning sector showed progress with an 0.8 percent decrease. Across Member States, outcomes diverged: nine of the ten countries that reduced emissions grew or maintained GDP, demonstrating decoupling varies by national policy and energy mix. Businesses and institutional investors are affected as quarterly data highlights which sectors face transition risk, particularly households and manufacturing, against the European Climate Law's binding targets.

Businesses and investors should monitor quarterly Eurostat emission fluctuations against long-term decarbonisation targets, including the European Climate Law's mandate of a 55 percent net emissions reduction by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050. Entities should note the SEEA methodology attributes international transport emissions to countries by economic activity, differing from UNFCCC and Paris Agreement reporting rules. Targeted investment in energy-efficient technologies is needed to sustain growth without raising the carbon footprint, particularly in the household and manufacturing sectors flagged as transition-risk exposed.

Key figure — Q3 2025 emissions: 828 million tonnes CO2-equivalent, up 1.1 percent