Study confirms global warming accelerated over the past decade

A study in Geophysical Research Letters, drawing on AGU and other researchers, found observational evidence that Earth's energy imbalance has risen since 2010, with the planet now absorbing nearly twice as much heat as 15 years ago. The finding implies Indian financial institutions, insurers and corporate disclosure frameworks must recalibrate physical-risk assessments for non-linear, faster warming.

Researchers publishing in Geophysical Research Letters, including scientists from the American Geophysical Union and other institutions, presented observational evidence that global warming has accelerated since 2010. By measuring Earth's energy imbalance using satellite data and deep-ocean temperature sensors rather than surface temperatures, they found the planet now absorbs nearly twice as much heat as 15 years ago. The study attributes acceleration to continued greenhouse-gas accumulation plus reduced sulfate aerosols, whose industrial and shipping-fuel emissions previously masked warming by reflecting sunlight.

The findings most directly affect financial institutions, insurers and any company subject to climate-risk disclosure obligations. As the effective warming rate rises, physical risks such as floods, heatwaves and Arctic-linked disruptions to supply chains and agriculture intensify, while transition risks from delayed policy responses also grow. The research warns that previously "once-in-a-century" events may become decadal occurrences sooner than anticipated, undermining the linear climate projections that underpin insurance pricing, infrastructure planning and forward-looking corporate assessments.

Affected entities should recalibrate forward-looking climate-risk models to reflect non-linear acceleration rather than static change. The study indicates that compliance with ESG disclosure mandates will require more frequent stress testing against aggressive warming scenarios. National governments face renewed pressure to update their Nationally Determined Contributions ahead of upcoming climate summits. Market participants should monitor revised NDC commitments and shift from a static view of climate change toward dynamic models of acceleration, treating adaptation as a critical requirement for long-term institutional resilience.

Key figure — Heat absorption: Earth now absorbs nearly twice as much heat as it did 15 years ago