India meets 50 percent non-fossil capacity target but records largest emissions rise

Analysis around the UNFCCC's 2025 Yearbook shows India reached its NDC target of 50 percent non-fossil installed electricity capacity years ahead of 2030 while recording the largest absolute rise in total greenhouse-gas emissions globally in 2024. India's planned compliance carbon market by mid-2026 will create a new accountability mechanism, forcing major emitters to invest in low-carbon technologies and GHG accounting.

Analysis surrounding the UNFCCC's 2025 Yearbook shows India reached its Nationally Determined Contribution target of 50 percent non-fossil installed electricity capacity years ahead of the 2030 schedule, alongside a 36 percent reduction in emissions intensity between 2005 and 2020. Renewable energy investment surged over 91.5 percent between 2023 and 2024, propelling cumulative installed renewable capacity toward 200 GW. However, India recorded the largest absolute rise in total greenhouse-gas emissions globally in 2024, underscoring the challenge of meeting growing energy demand while decarbonising at the required pace.

The duality affects major emitters, financial institutions, and investors scrutinising Indian corporate capital expenditure. The main obstacle to deeper decarbonisation is persistent reliance on coal, with no clear time-bound national coal phase-out plan and continued auctioning of new coal blocks. While the 2070 net-zero goal provides direction, the absence of aggressive interim targets for 2035 and 2040 means current policies are deemed insufficient to align with a 1.5 degree Celsius pathway. The government is moving to establish a compliance carbon market by mid-2026 under the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, introducing accountability for major emitters.

Businesses should prepare for the impending national carbon market by mid-2026, which creates a new compliance mechanism necessitating immediate investment in low-carbon technologies and GHG accounting. Financial institutions and investors should scrutinise corporate capital expenditure plans for a credible coal phase-down strategy as markets begin pricing in regulatory risk and international pressure. Stakeholders should monitor India's progress on interim 2035 and 2040 targets, the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme rollout, and continued leadership through the International Solar Alliance and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure.

Key figure — Renewable energy investment surge: over 91.5 percent between 2023 and 2024