UAE Pledges 47% Emission Cut by 2035 from 2019 Levels

The UAE pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions 47% from 2019 levels by 2035, becoming the first major emitter to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions before the February 2025 deadline. The target sets a Gulf benchmark for NDC ambition amid scrutiny of fossil-fuel-reliant economies' climate credibility.

The United Arab Emirates pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 47% from 2019 levels by 2035, up from its previous target of 40% by 2030. Announced ahead of COP29 in Azerbaijan, the updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) make it the first major emitter to submit new targets before the February 2025 deadline. The goals aim to cut emissions from 196.3 MtCO2eq in 2019 to 103.5 MtCO2eq by 2035, aligned with the UAE's net-zero goal by 2050, shifting from business-as-usual metrics to a base-year comparison.

The pledge sets sector-specific targets affecting buildings (79% reduction to 15 MtCO2eq), industry (27% cut to 68 MtCO2eq), transport (20% reduction to 24 MtCO2eq), waste (37% decrease, lowering emissions by 1.8 MtCO2eq) and agriculture (39% reduction, equivalent to 1.6 MtCO2eq). However, the UAE remains one of the world's top oil producers and plans to increase fossil fuel production by 2030. Before COP28, its national oil company allocated $17 billion for offshore gas projects, raising credibility concerns alongside the exclusion of exported emissions.

Observers should monitor how the UAE reconciles its 47% reduction target with continued fossil fuel expansion and the exclusion of exported emissions, which critics cite as credibility risks. The plan will test commitments made at COP28 to phase out fossil fuels. Stakeholders should track the UAE's parallel investments in solar, waste-to-energy and nuclear power against its expanding oil and gas output, as the NDCs form a crucial component of the Paris Agreement's goal to cap warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Key figure — Emissions target: 47% reduction from 2019 levels by 2035