Forecasters Warn Developing El Nino Could Intensify Into Rare Super Event

A developing El Nino in the Pacific Ocean may intensify into a rare super El Nino, potentially one of the strongest climate events in over a century, with forecasters warning of major disruptions to global weather patterns including India's monsoon cycles. New research also links super El Nino events to long-term climate regime shifts affecting ecosystems and livelihoods across the tropics.

Meteorological agencies and climate researchers have identified early indicators of an El Nino forming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with some forecast models suggesting it could develop into a super El Nino — a classification reserved for particularly intense events. Such an event would represent one of the most powerful atmospheric and oceanic disruptions in over a century, generating cascading effects on precipitation, temperature and storm patterns across multiple continents.

For India, a super El Nino carries significant risk to the June-September monsoon, which provides the majority of annual rainfall across the agricultural heartland. Historical data shows strong El Nino events are associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall, increasing drought probability in key farming states. Reduced monsoon rainfall affects kharif crop yields, reservoir levels, hydropower generation and rural household incomes, with downstream effects on food prices and inflation.

New research presented alongside the forecasts links super El Nino events to longer-term shifts in climate regimes that can persist for multiple years after the event itself, affecting fisheries, forest fire seasons and coral reef health. Governments in South and Southeast Asia are being urged to activate contingency planning for water conservation, drought preparedness and food system resilience. India's IMD is expected to update its long-range monsoon forecast as Pacific conditions evolve over the coming months.

Key figure — Potential to be one of the strongest El Nino events in over 100 years