AI Model Projects Wind and Solar Fall Short of 1.5C Goal

A new AI-driven forecasting model called PROLONG projects onshore wind reaching 25 per cent and solar 20 per cent of global electricity by 2050, sufficient for a 2C pathway but not the 1.5C target. The model, developed by Chalmers University of Technology, analyses historical data from over 200 countries using 13,000 virtual world simulations.

Researchers at Chalmers University of Technology published a study in Nature Energy introducing PROLONG, an AI-based computational model that analyses renewable energy growth trajectories across more than 200 countries. Unlike conventional forecasting tools, PROLONG captures real-world patterns including sudden policy-driven surges. Its central projections place onshore wind at approximately 25 per cent of global electricity generation and solar at around 20 per cent by 2050, levels that align with a 2-degree Celsius warming pathway but fall short of the more ambitious 1.5C threshold.

The findings carry significant implications for the COP28 pledge to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, which the model characterises as highly ambitious. While wind and solar have already outpaced earlier projections, the gap between current trajectories and 1.5C-compatible pathways highlights the need for accelerated policy action. For India, which is targeting 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030, the study underscores that ambition alone does not guarantee outcomes without structural support and investment.

The authors suggest that closing the gap to 1.5C will require more than market momentum — it demands coordinated industrial policy, faster grid expansion and technology deployment at a pace not yet observed. Policymakers are expected to use PROLONG-type tools to stress-test national energy plans. Future iterations of the model may incorporate demand-side variables, providing a more complete picture of the transition challenge facing the energy sector globally.

Key figure — 25% onshore wind and 20% solar share of global electricity by 2050