Climate Disruption Could Affect 520 Million Students in Eastern and Southern Africa

A UNICEF and Dalberg report finds that climate-related disasters disrupted the education of 130 million children in Eastern and Southern Africa between 2005 and 2024, generating an estimated US$1.3 billion in direct economic losses to education infrastructure. Without stronger action, cumulative disruptions between 2025 and 2050 could affect 440 to 520 million children and result in US$260 to $380 billion in future earnings losses.

Floods, droughts and cyclones have damaged classrooms, learning materials and school infrastructure across the region while forcing many children out of education altogether. Heatwaves reduce students' concentration, cognitive performance and exam outcomes while increasing teacher absenteeism and mental health challenges. Climate-induced poverty raises risks of child labour, early marriage and gender-based violence for displaced children. In Mozambique, the 2019 cyclones Idai and Kenneth affected 1.1 million children, caused US$3 billion in total losses and damaged nearly 5,000 classrooms.

The findings highlight a severe mismatch between the scale of the problem and the level of climate finance directed at education. Education currently receives less than 1.5 per cent of global climate finance, leaving school systems exposed to repeated cycles of damage and partial recovery. In Zambia, direct economic losses to education reached approximately US$60 million between 2005 and 2024 and could rise to US$230 to $295 million by 2050 without intervention. Girls, children with disabilities and marginalised groups bear the heaviest burden of climate-driven educational disruption.

The report argues that every US$1 invested in strengthening schools against climate shocks generates up to US$13 in benefits through avoided damage, preserved learning continuity and improved long-term productivity. The analysis covers Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Somalia and Zambia in depth and calls for increased funding, stronger national climate strategies and education systems explicitly recognised as critical infrastructure in climate adaptation planning. UNICEF and Dalberg stress that protecting children's education is inseparable from securing broader development goals.

Key figure — Up to US$13 in benefits for every US$1 invested in climate-resilient schools