Early Heat Wave Threatens 10 Per Cent Wheat Yield Loss in Punjab

Unseasonal heat in February and March is accelerating wheat ripening in Punjab and Haryana, with agricultural experts projecting yield losses of 7-10 per cent in timely-sown crops and up to 10 per cent in late-sown crops. The pattern mirrors the severe 2022 heatwave that cut wheat yields across the two states by 13-16 per cent, raising alarm among farmers already contending with record rainfall deficits.

Punjab recorded just 0.6 mm of rainfall in February 2026, a 98 per cent deficit against the normal of 27.1 mm. Maximum temperatures in parts of Malwa reached 34 degrees Celsius in early March, approximately 6 degrees above normal. Agricultural meteorologists at Punjab Agricultural University attributed the shift to weakened western disturbances linked to global warming. Farmers in Sangrur and Sirsa districts report smaller grain sizes, greater weed growth and increased irrigation rounds — from three to four — to stave off premature ripening.

Virendra Lather, former principal scientist at the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, warned that if temperatures continued rising, crops could ripen 10-15 days earlier than normal. Hariram Sharma of Punjab Agricultural University placed projected losses at around 10 per cent for Punjab and Haryana. Farmer groups note that more than 60 per cent of days in February and early March were warmer than usual. The agricultural economy of northern India, which supplies a large share of India's wheat output to the central pool, faces direct exposure to these compounding climate stresses.

Haryana Agricultural University has issued advisories for light irrigation and application of 2 per cent potassium nitrate to reduce heat stress on wheat crops. Farmer organisations are seeking government compensation of Rs 400-500 per quintal to offset expected losses. Agricultural institutions say current wheat varieties can tolerate temperatures up to 30 degrees Celsius but sustain significant damage beyond 35 degrees. Scientists say the shortening of winters is a decade-long trend, with February temperatures increasingly resembling April conditions in the region.

Key figure — 98 per cent rainfall deficit in Punjab in February 2026 (0.6 mm against normal of 27.1 mm)