Australia Omits 28 Million Tonnes of Methane Emissions from National Inventory

International Energy Agency satellite-based estimates show Australia's actual methane emissions from coal, oil, and gas sectors are nearly twice the levels reported in the country's national greenhouse gas inventory, equivalent to 28 million tonnes of CO2 that is currently unaccounted for in the official data. Correcting the under-reporting would force Australia's largest industrial emitters to more than double their annual emissions reductions under the federal Safeguard Mechanism.

The IEA estimates that Australian methane emissions from coal mining are approximately 81% higher than national inventory data, while oil and gas sector emissions are 92% higher. These figures incorporate satellite detection of methane releases alongside other publicly credible sources. The 28 million tonne CO2-equivalent gap represents approximately 6% of Australia's total annual emissions. Methane is a significantly more potent warming agent than CO2 — absorbing 82 times more energy over a 20-year period — making accurate measurement and reporting critical to effective climate action.

Under Australia's Safeguard Mechanism, large industrial emitters face a declining emissions baseline. Based on IEEFA analysis, approximately 86% of under-reported fugitive emissions fall within the Safeguard Mechanism's coverage. Correcting the baseline would require covered facilities to achieve a 9.8% annual emissions reduction — double the currently mandated 4.9% rate — to remain within the mechanism's cumulative 1,233 million tonne CO2-equivalent ceiling by 2030. The only alternative would be to impose steeper reduction requirements on other economic sectors.

Australia signed the Global Methane Pledge to cut methane emissions 30% below 2020 levels by 2030 but has not specified a domestic methane reduction target or an implementation plan. IEEFA argues this gap must be urgently closed to prevent Australian industries and households from bearing the financial cost of emissions primarily generated by the coal, oil, and gas sectors. New satellite monitoring technologies now make it possible to better measure onshore coal mine emissions — which are the primary source of under-reporting — and should be deployed immediately.

Key figure — 28 MtCO2e — estimated annual volume of Australian fugitive methane emissions omitted from the national greenhouse gas inventory