IEA forecasts 2.5% rise in global gas demand in 2024
The IEA's Gas Market Report forecasts global gas demand will grow 2.5% in 2024, equivalent to 100 billion cubic meters, driven by colder weather, easing prices, and emerging economies. With supply expected to remain tight and geopolitical risks elevated, the outlook carries energy-security and price-volatility implications relevant to India as a major gas-importing emerging economy.
The International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest Gas Market Report forecasts global gas demand will increase 2.5% in 2024, equivalent to 100 billion cubic meters, driven by colder winter temperatures and easing prices, with emerging economies leading growth. In 2023, global gas demand grew only 0.5%, with China, North America, and gas-rich nations in Africa and the Middle East driving the increase. China regained its position as the world's largest LNG importer with 7% growth, while Europe's gas consumption fell 7% to its lowest level since 1995.
Emerging economies and price-sensitive industrial sectors are affected, as natural gas prices that fell sharply after 2022 record highs support recovery in gas demand. Colder winter weather compared with mild 2023 temperatures is expected to increase space heating demand. On the supply side, gas availability remained tight in 2023, with global LNG production falling short of expectations and the United States emerging as the world's largest LNG exporter, contributing 80% of additional LNG supply, leaving European and mature Asian markets exposed to tight supply.
Gas market participants should monitor that supply is expected to remain tight in 2024 with limited LNG output growth, potentially restraining demand growth especially in Europe and mature Asian markets, as substantial new LNG capacity is not expected until after 2024. Geopolitical uncertainties including Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Middle East tensions are significant risk factors. The IEA also highlights a growing focus on low-emission gases like hydrogen, biogas, and biomethane to support energy and climate goals.
Key figure — 2024 demand forecast: 2.5% growth (100 billion cubic meters)
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