India Ranks Among Most Vulnerable Large Economies to Climate-Driven Food Insecurity

A new global food security index finds India is among the large economies most at risk of worsening food insecurity as global temperatures rise, with food security scores projected to fall under both 1.5 degree and 2 degree warming scenarios. The study warns that economic growth alone may not insulate food systems from repeated climate shocks.

A new global index assessing food security vulnerability under climate change places India among the large economies facing the sharpest projected deterioration in food security outcomes as temperatures rise. The analysis shows India's food security score falling materially under 1.5C and 2C warming scenarios, driven by projected impacts on food availability, affordability and nutritional quality. India's exposure reflects its large agricultural sector's sensitivity to monsoon variability, heat stress on crops and water scarcity.

The study finds that climate-driven food system shocks are expected to widen the gap between countries with strong economic and institutional resilience and those with weaker adaptive capacity. India's position is complicated by its size and diversity: some states have more robust food systems than others, and the distributional impacts of climate shocks are expected to fall disproportionately on poorer rural households and female-headed farming families. Economic growth at the national level does not automatically translate into food security for the most vulnerable.

The index recommendations include investment in climate-resilient agriculture, diversification of food supply chains, expanded social protection coverage and strengthened nutrition programmes. For India, where the National Food Security Act already provides some baseline protection, the analysis suggests that the current safety net architecture will need to be expanded and made more adaptive to climate disruptions. The study is expected to feature in international food security and climate adaptation policy discussions ahead of upcoming COP negotiations.

Key figure — India ranked among most vulnerable large economies on new global climate food security index