India's Net-Zero 2070 Pathway Requires US$22.7 Trillion and Just Transition Planning

India will require approximately US$22.7 trillion in cumulative investment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070, implying an incremental requirement of US$8.1 trillion above a current-policy trajectory, according to a NITI Aayog report. Academic authors argue that without deliberate labour market interventions and regional equity strategies, the transition risks deepening structural inequalities in coal-dependent states such as Jharkhand, Odisha and Chhattisgarh.

Coal India Limited alone employs 214,333 workers as of January 1, 2026, with many more engaged through contract labour and ancillary services. Mining royalties and associated revenues underpin state finances in coal-bearing regions. According to IEA's World Energy Employment 2024 report, global energy employment reached approximately 67 million jobs in 2024, with clean energy sectors accounting for most net job growth. However, aggregate employment gains conceal regional asymmetries: without domestic manufacturing strategies and skill alignment, India risks importing solar and battery equipment while losing employment opportunities abroad.

The electricity sector commands the largest share of India's net-zero investment requirement, demanding multi-trillion-dollar allocations across renewable generation, battery storage, green hydrogen, transmission expansion and grid flexibility. Electricity demand is projected to grow substantially as transport, cooking and industry segments electrify. The authors argue that without geographically targeted investment strategies, new clean energy employment may concentrate in already-advantaged regions while coal-dependent districts face unmanaged economic contraction and social unrest.

The article identifies three urgent pillars for India's just transition: anticipatory regional planning with transparent roadmaps and labour audits for coal-dependent districts; domestic value-chain development linking renewable expansion to manufacturing in green steel, batteries and grid equipment; and a dedicated Transition Stabilisation Fund financed through carbon levies and climate finance. The authors warn that expanding steel and infrastructure capacity while locking in coal-based generation risks stranded assets and fiscal strain, and call for climate risk disclosure and binding transition plans to be made mandatory for energy-intensive industries.

Key figure — US$22.7 trillion cumulative investment required for India's net-zero 2070 pathway, per NITI Aayog