ALMM List-II Launch Exposes India's Solar Cell Shortage for Module Makers

India's implementation of the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers List-II domestic content requirement from June 1, 2026 has triggered concern across the solar manufacturing industry, as domestic solar cell capacity of approximately 31 gigawatts falls far short of module manufacturing capacity of around 193 gigawatts. Standalone module manufacturers warn the mismatch could strand investments, disrupt production and concentrate the market among a handful of vertically integrated players.

The ALMM List-II mandate requires all government-backed, net-metered and open-access solar projects commissioned from June 1, 2026 to use panels manufactured exclusively with domestically produced solar cells. The structural gap is most pronounced in TOPCon technology, where approved module capacity stands at approximately 172 gigawatts but domestic cell manufacturing capacity is only around 10 gigawatts. After integrated manufacturers use approximately 28,579 megawatts of cells for captive production, only about 2,558 megawatts remains available on the open market, meeting less than 1.9 per cent of standalone manufacturers' requirements. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy confirmed on May 25, 2026 that it would not extend the ALMM List-II deadline.

Standalone module manufacturers argue the policy could render existing investments commercially unviable. Establishing a 1 gigawatt module manufacturing line requires Rs 50-80 crore in investment, often financed through loans. By contrast, a 1 gigawatt solar cell manufacturing facility requires Rs 250-400 crore, carries an 18-24 month gestation period and demands specialised semiconductor-grade expertise. Manufacturers warn that standalone players would face what one company described as double financial jeopardy: servicing existing debt while raising capital for cell facilities. Industry estimates suggest around 138 standalone manufacturers collectively represent nearly 134 gigawatts of module capacity that could be rendered unviable.

Industry leaders broadly support the goal of building a self-reliant solar sector but are seeking a transition period to allow domestic cell production to scale. Ganesh Moorthi of Luminous Power Technologies said the policy will accelerate investment across the value chain and improve supply-chain resilience. Ishver Dholakiya of Goldi Solar described ALMM List-II as India's clearest signal yet that the next phase of solar transition will be built on domestic capability. Binit Das of the Centre for Science and Environment said the primary concern is the timing mismatch between the cell requirement and current domestic capacity, particularly for TOPCon. India recorded an all-time peak power demand of 270.8 gigawatts on May 21, 2026, with solar contributing nearly one-fifth of electricity supply, underscoring the stakes of policy continuity in renewable manufacturing.

Key figure — 31 GW domestic solar cell capacity vs 193 GW module capacity