Copernicus Confirms May 2026 Was Second Warmest May in Recorded History
The Copernicus Climate Change Service has confirmed that May 2026 was the second warmest May on record globally, with a global average surface air temperature of 15.81°C — 1.42°C above the pre-industrial average. Exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific pointed to an 80 per cent probability of El Nino developing between June and August.
The global temperature anomaly of 0.55°C above the 1991–2020 average placed May 2026 second only to May 2024. Sea surface temperatures between 60°S and 60°N were also the second highest on record, behind May 2024. The World Meteorological Organization assessed an 80 per cent probability of El Nino development in the Equatorial Pacific during the June–August window, with exceptionally high SSTs already recorded across large parts of the region.
Europe experienced an unusually early and intense heatwave in late May, with a rapid switch from colder-than-average conditions to feels-like temperatures of 35–40°C in many locations. Temperature records were broken in France, the UK, Ireland, and Portugal. Heat-stress conditions were classified as strong to very strong across much of the region, with the rapid transition giving populations, crops, and ecosystems little time to acclimatise. Large parts of central and western Europe, Italy, and southern Spain experienced drier-than-average conditions, and river flows in important catchments including the Danube and Vistula ran below average.
Beyond Europe, May 2026 saw drier-than-normal conditions across central United States, central Asia, Madagascar, southwestern Australia, and parts of South America. Copernicus noted that the hot and dry conditions in many regions reflect developing El Nino conditions in the Equatorial Pacific. For India, the data reinforces projections of a below-average 2026 monsoon season, with El Nino historically associated with reduced South Asian rainfall, drought risk, and increased heat stress for agricultural workers and urban populations.
Key figure — 15.81°C — global average surface temperature in May 2026
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