Novel Climate Regimes Emerge in India as Heat Intensifies Drought

New and historically unprecedented climate conditions are forming across India as rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns combine to create drought conditions outside known historical ranges, according to research presented at the Anil Agarwal Dialogue 2026. Scientist Arpit Tiwari of the BIMSTEC Centre for Weather and Climate found that high maximum temperatures have become an independent driver of drought, intensifying moisture stress even when rainfall does not decline.

The study used daily rainfall data comparing periods 1951-1980 and 1981-2020 to map the emergence of non-analogue climate states across India's diverse zones. During pre-monsoon months (March-May), high maximum and minimum temperatures dominate, increasing evaporative demand and desiccating soils even without a rainfall deficit. During the monsoon (June-September), rainfall deficit remains the primary drought trigger, while post-monsoon high temperatures can prolong dry periods and stress Rabi crops. Northeast India, the Himalayas, and the Indo-Gangetic Plain show significant drying trends driven by declining rainfall combined with rising temperatures.

Western and Peninsular India, by contrast, show wetting trends primarily driven by increasing rainfall and more frequent convective precipitation events. This simultaneous drying and wetting across different regions signals a water crisis defined not only by scarcity but by deep spatial imbalance, with implications for agriculture and food security. Tiwari's findings indicate that India's drought early-warning systems must incorporate temperature and evaporative demand alongside rainfall anomalies, and that national agricultural policy must be replaced by region-specific strategies for water management.

The study calls for development and deployment of crop varieties capable of withstanding combined heat and water stress, referred to as hot droughts. Agricultural calendars should be revised and water-efficient practices such as micro-irrigation promoted. For critically important but drying regions such as the Indo-Gangetic Plain and Northeast India, the research recommends sustainable groundwater management, large-scale water harvesting, and demand-side interventions to reduce consumption. Tiwari presented the findings as evidence of the urgency of region-specific climate adaptation planning in India.

Key figure — Drying trends identified across the Indo-Gangetic Plain, Northeast India and the Himalayas