Climate Change Made Western Mediterranean Storms 36 Percent More Intense

Nine named storms between January 16 and February 17, 2026 brought extreme rainfall to Spain, Portugal, and Morocco, with observational analysis showing climate change increased rainfall intensity by up to 36 per cent in affected southern regions, according to the World Weather Attribution consortium. The storms caused approximately 50 deaths, 300,000 displaced people in Morocco, and financial losses in the billions of euros across the three countries.

The Grazalema region of southern Spain received 581 mm of rainfall in 24 hours on February 5, and 2,527 mm of accumulated rainfall between January 1 and February 9 — more than 2.5 times the previous record for the same duration set in early 2009. In Spain, around 12,400 people were evacuated and approximately 115,000 affected, concentrated in the Sierra de Cadiz area. Six people died in Portugal during Storm Kristin, which brought peak wind speeds of 202 km/hr and cut power to approximately one million people. In Morocco, flooding caused 43 deaths and inundated 110,000 homes.

WWA's attribution analysis found that the one-day maximum rainfall event increased in intensity by 36 per cent in the southern region and 29 per cent in the northern region since 1950. The North Atlantic Oscillation added 5 per cent to intensity in the southern region. When scientists ran observational data through climate models, models could not reproduce the observed trend in the southern region, and underestimated the northern region trend at 11 per cent versus observed values — a finding that highlights significant gaps in climate model efficacy for Mediterranean blocking events. Return periods for the extreme rainfall ranged from five years in northern areas to 100 years at the most localised scale.

The Spanish government committed 7 billion euros in aid for affected regions, with Andalusia promising an additional 1.78 billion euros. Portugal pledged 3.5 billion euros for reconstruction, and Morocco announced a 280 million euro recovery plan. Scientists noted that densely populated urban areas where tourism-driven development has expanded into floodplains faced particularly high exposure. In Morocco, high exposure compounded existing social vulnerability in informal settlements. Friederike Otto of Imperial College London said the evidence confirms that a warming atmosphere is producing more intense and more frequent extreme rainfall events that policymakers must plan and adapt for.

Key figure — 581 mm of rainfall in 24 hours at Grazalema, Spain on February 5, 2026